Saturday, August 3, 2013

Home prices to stabilize or fall in 6 Fla. cities

IRVINE, Calif. – Aug. 1, 2013 – CoreLogic released an analysis of home price trends during the first quarter of 2013 in more than 380 U.S. markets based on the CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indexes and data from the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA).

In the report, home prices increased 10.2 percent in the first quarter of 2013 compared to the first quarter of 2012. It’s the first double-digit gain since the peak of the housing bubble seven years ago.

However, the analysis also predicts that prices will stop rising as quickly in 2014 as an increase in mortgage interest rates make demand and supply more balanced. As more homeowners consider selling to lock in capital gains, upward price pressure will subside.

In four of six Florida cities included in the analysis, price increases in the first quarter of 2013 beat the national average. The year-to-year increase in Orlando was 14.6 percent; in Miami it was 14.2 percent; Tampa was 11.9 percent and West Palm Beach was 11.4 percent.

The remaining two Florida cities in the study still had year-over-year price increases in the first quarter, however. Jacksonville recorded a 9.9 percent increase, while Fort Lauderdale logged 9.5 percent.

The report goes on to predict what will happen to home prices by the first quarter of 2014. Nationwide, CoreLogic foresees an increase of 6.5 percent.

However, all six Florida cities would fall short of that forecasted price rise by 2014’s first quarter, according to CoreLogic. Tampa tops the list with a 2.6 percent price growth predicted, but only two other cities are expected to see price increases: Jacksonville at 1.4 percent and West Palm Beach with 0.6 percent.

The report predicts the three remaining cities’ home prices will drop slightly in value by the first quarter of next year: Miami by 2.7 percent, Fort Lauderdale by 2.6 percent and Orlando by 1.6 percent.

“Although double-digit gains usually indicate unsustainable appreciation and, possibly, bubbles in some metro areas, there is less need for concern now since home prices remain 26 percent below their peak nationally and are even lower in many metro markets,” says Dr. David Stiff, chief economist for CoreLogic Case-Shiller.

© 2013 Florida Realtors®

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